The Macro Implication for Germany: External Demand Is No Longer a Given
Torsten Sløk, Apollo Global presents a striking chart:
Germany’s exports to China have declined relative to GDP, while China’s exports to Germany have remained stable relative to GDP.
This is a highly informative asymmetry, and it tells us much more about Germany’s growth model and China’s industrial trajectory than about short-term trade cycles.
It is a one-sided erosion: Germany is losing China as a growth outlet; China is not losing Germany.
This is not primarily about geopolitics or tariffs. The deeper drivers are structural.
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| Germany’s exports to China have declined relative to GDP (below 2%), while China’s exports to Germany have remained stable relative to GDP, Graph: Torsten Sløk, Apollo Global, Dec 24, 2025. |
